He also received the Twins’ most RBI chances in 20, and the second-most in 2017. Rosario received 80 more RBI opportunities, yet drove in just one more run. That season, Rosario came to the plate with a team-high 412 runners on base, compared to 332 for Cruz. He always batted near the middle of the lineup, coming to the plate with the most runners on base, and he rarely passed up an RBI chance by drawing a walk.įor instance, Rosario led the 2019 Twins with 109 RBI, one more than Nelson Cruz. Rosario is an example of the out-sized role opportunity has in RBI accumulation. It can be difficult to separate high RBI totals from good clutch hitting, because for decades conventional wisdom treated them as one in the same. 752 OPS in high-leverage situations, 52 points lower than his OPS in low-leverage spots, and his undisciplined aggression became magnified with a. Rosario has a higher career OPS with the bases empty (.798) than with runners in scoring position (.775) despite league-wide numbers showing that hitters are generally at an advantage with runners on base. Rosario certainly came through with his share of clutch hits in a Twins uniform, each of which “confirmed” the reputation he established early, but he also was prone to giving away outs in key spots by recklessly chasing pitches out of the strike zone. However, his actual numbers in clutch situations weren’t especially great, or at least not better than you’d expect from a hitter of his caliber. He’s averaged just 25 non-intentional walks per 150 games, with a high of 34. And while most free-swingers tend to at least become a bit more discerning with age and experience, Rosario swung at 42.6 percent of non-strikes in 2020 and 44.3 percent in 2018-2020 combined. Since his 2015 debut, Rosario has swung at 42.8 percent of pitches outside the strike zone, fifth-most in the majors. He was an above-average hitter in five of six Twins seasons, but Rosario never took the next step from good to great, in large part because he remained an undisciplined hitter all too willing to chase bad pitches. Rosario arrived in style, homering on the first pitch he saw in the majors as a 23-year-old rookie in 2015, and he quickly became a fixture in the middle of the Twins’ lineup. Why was one of their most popular, longest-tenured players deemed not worth a $10 million salary by the Twins and every other team in baseball? Let’s examine the reasons. But in the meantime, there are lots of stunned Twins fans with lots of questions after so many good years together. While unlikely, it’s still possible that Rosario could re-sign with the Twins at a reduced salary. They shopped him again this offseason, seeking a modest return because of his projected arbitration figure, eventually making Rosario available on outright waivers for nothing in return when they found no takers. The Twins shopped Rosario last offseason, but found his trade market lacking and hung onto him. During the past month, I’ve written several times that Rosario was likely to be non-tendered. Two months ago, in breaking down the 2021 payroll situation, I did not include Rosario and his projected $10 million salary in the Twins’ plans, assuming he’d be non-tendered or traded. I wrote last October about the upcoming clash between Rosario’s rising salaries and his stagnant perceived value. It was not a surprise move, or at least it shouldn’t have been.
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